Union workers have long been an integral voter demographic for Democrats. This has been particularly true in swing states.
But as of late, the realignment in our politics is shifting union support – and blue collar workers generally – to the GOP. Even in 2020, Biden barely managed a majority of union voters.
That trend appears to be accelerating as 2024 continues.
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CNN: Union Voters Trending Trump
President Joe Biden received the official endorsement of the United Autoworkers Union (UAW) in late January.
Still CNN – of all places – recently reported that union workers are now trending more toward Donald Trump.
The Daily Caller reported of CNN senior analyst Harry Enten, “Enten said while the belief has always been the union vote goes Democratic, data from key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin show Trump in a dead heat with Biden.”
“I think this might be a bit of a surprise to some folks,” Enten said. “This is among union members in key swing states, Joe Biden at 47%. Donald Trump at 47%. This is a clear movement from what we saw in 2020. The recall vote on that was Biden plus eight. So this is a movement towards Donald Trump. Donald Trump gaining among union members as he has gained nationwide as well.”
CNN’s Poppy Harlow asked, “What about the trend line for union workers over time?”
The story continued:
“I was looking at some of the national polls there and we’re also seeing that trend line more towards Donald Trump this time around. So union members are a big part of the democratic coalition, but fewer and fewer of them are voting democratic and why is that? What is going on here? Well, union member vote in 2020, among college graduates, Joe Biden … won union members by 46 points. But look with no college degree. Donald Trump won that vote by six points. So oftentimes we think of unions we think of blue-collar workers but in fact there are a lot of white-collar voters in unions and the fact is those voters are going over from Biden, but you look at those blue-collar workers they are much more in the Trump camp,” Enten said.
A full-blown GOP vote from a majority of union members would be a major sea change.
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Bad News for Biden
Many national polls already show Trump ahead of Biden, and if the president can’t count on a demographic as historically reliable for Democrats as union voters – that is not good news for him.
It’s great news for Donald Trump.
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